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The Global CEO's Economic Intelligence Report
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Global Economic Intelligence
This
section provides a quarterly 360 degree view of the global economy
to help CEOs, their boards and investors with their quarterly strategic planning review. The
purpose of this report is not to provide real-time news but to
summarize key events and reveal quarterly trends, emerging risks and
opportunities. To subscribe to the latest reports, please visit the
Subscription page.
Economic News Briefing > Q3 / 2009
- IMF says banks well-capitalized, eyes social unrest
- Brazil calls for IMF reforms in order to fix the global
economy
- Global IPOs surge in Q3, led by buyout deals
- Warnings of social crisis as unemployment rises
- China, India and Russia, eager to reduce their position in
dollar-denominated securities, have expressed interest in buying
IMF gold
- Deflation is seen as a bigger problem than inflation
- Oil price is rising due to supply constraints and
speculation
- Calls for international co-ordination of exit strategies
- Short-term money market rates fall towards zero
- Warnings against premature crisis exit strategies
- The reason for the increase in leading indicators has been
the rise in stock market and yield spreads.
- Calls for financial reforms should include mechanisms for
regulators to prick bubbles, direct controls of credit, and a
new definition of market risk
- Warnings about underestimating the crisis, as governments
are preparing their exit strategies
- The green shoots episode is over the policy to wait for
things to improve is failing
- Raising capital requirements for banks is not enough
- Stocks crash, and recover
- Forecast of more oil price hikes and the possibility of
higher interest rates
- UNCTAD report calls for new global exchange rate system, in
which dollar is replaced as the main global reserve currency
- Global macro hedge funds are betting serious money against
the economic recovery
- The VIX index for market volatility reached a new peak amid
renewed concerns about the future of the financial sector
- Media cheerleading of the current bull market is counter
productive
- Warning that Fiscal policy is rendering any monetary-only
strategy ineffective
- Pittsburgh summit will decide material changes to banking
regulation, especially on capital adequacy
- Warnings that proposed increases in capital adequacy ratio
would make loans more expensive.
- BASLE imposes new tougher capital adequacy rules on banks
- Focus is mostly on raising bank capital. There was no deal
on bonus payments.
- Economists warn that we might get a double dip recession
- Euro-Dollar (at $1.45) at highest levels for a year on
rising risk appetite- gold at $1000 per ounce breaches through
highest level for 17 months
- G20 finance ministers meeting agrees on a minimalist list of
financial reforms - rubberstamping measures that were already on
government's agendas.
- In the new world economy banks, real estate and retailing
will underperform other assets
- IMF is cautiously optimistic about global prospects.
- OECD has a more optimistic forecast for growth in the G7
- OECD expects recovery in 2010 everywhere but in Europe
- G8 meeting talks about exit strategies, no concrete
agreement, and differing assessments about the crisis, and
future policy
- Germany, France and UK write joint letter to set out the
agenda for Pittsburgh, focusing on executive bonus payments as
the most pressing issue in the world today
- Germany criticizes excessive G20 focus on external
imbalances
- European finance ministers reached common position to
restrict bankers payments ahead of the G20 summit
- Economists face credibility challenge Have a hard time
defending themselves against with criticisms of their profession
- Insolvencies and higher unemployment would weigh on economic
performance
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